French philosopher and mathematician Auguste Comte wasn’t wrong when he said, ‘Demography is destiny’. After looking at the change in demographic data in West Bengal and what has happened and is happening due to that change, it has made me place my faith in Comte’s phrase.
To understand the gravity of this change, one must look at the starting point of all this – the 1947 Partition. The partition was intended to provide a stable demographic homeland to both the Hindus and Muslims. But that stability never arrived.
What do I mean by this? In 1951, West Bengal’s social fabric was composed of a 76.9% Hindu majority and a 19.6% Muslim minority. The subsequent six decades (from 1951-2011) saw a massive divergence in growth that defies simple explanation. While the total population increased by 247%, the Hindu community grew by 210.2%, whereas the Muslim population surged by a staggering 381.7%, leaping from 5.1 million to 24.6 million.
Moreover, the 2011 Census confirmed the emergence of ‘Green Zones’ (areas with Muslim population), where the minority has either become the majority or a dominant plurality. Like in Murshidabad, the Muslim population climbed from 55.2% in 1951 to a commanding 66.27% by 2011. Malda, too, witnessed a complete demographic flip, moving from 37.4% to a 51.27% majority, while Uttar Dinajpur reached a precarious tipping point of 49.92%. Half a century crossed in just 79 years. Are you able to trace stability? Because I am definitely not able to even think of this term.
What has been the result of this change? In Murshidabad, the 2025 anti-Waqf Act protests escalated into a humanitarian crisis, where reports from Special Investigation Teams (SIT) and civil society groups detailed brutal attacks, including the hacking of residents and the torching of cattle. The violence was such that it forced over 400 Hindu families to flee their homes for shelter in neighbouring Malda. On this, I still remember what West Bengal Minister Firhad Hakim said following the displacement of the poor Hindus, ‘They are migrating within Bengal only. Everything is alright.’ Since then, the word ‘alright’ has never appeared so frustrating to me.
This was the incident that made me feel that Bengal has turned into a ‘high-risk’ zone.
Was Murshidabad an exception? Not at all. In April 2026, a deeply troubling incident unfolded in the Mothabari–Kaliachak region of Malda district, where a Muslim mob surrounded and effectively confined seven judicial officers for 9 hours during a voter list verification exercise. 7 people. 9 hours. Just imagine the kind of confidence these people must be having for doing this.
And it was not just another random incident. The convoy of the judicial officers was heavily stone-pelted. Good thing was that the incident did not go unnoticed and the Supreme Court took serious note of the deeply troubling incident, expressing grave concern and calling it a stark indicator of a breakdown in the law and order situation. But then, Ms Banerjee might come here and say that it was the BJP people who did all this.
It’s not just riots that exist in Bengal. On September 19, 2020, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) arrested nine Al-Qaeda-linked operatives- six from Murshidabad in West Bengal and three from Kerala, who were part of a module reportedly planning attacks, including in the National Capital Region.
Then, West Bengal has been one of the key operational theatres in India for activities linked to the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), a terrorist organisation, since the 2014 Burdwan blast, which exposed cross-border terror networks, including bomb-making units and recruitment cells. Subsequent investigations, including those related to the 2018 Bodh Gaya blasts, led to further crackdowns on JMB-linked modules across eastern India. Historically speaking, the JMB’s presence has been concentrated in districts bordering Bangladesh like Murshidabad and Malda, leveraging cross-border linkages and porous boundaries.
But now, recent investigations indicate a concerning shift, with JMB-linked networks showing signs of expansion into southern India, pointing to a broader geographic spread beyond their traditional strongholds. The roots are the same, just the places are getting shifted.
That the February 2024 events in Sandeshkhali showed what a localised breakdown of governance looks like. Sheikh Shahjahan, a powerful Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader and Zilla Parishad official with a dark criminal history ranging from the 2019 murders of political rivals to a multi-crore ration distribution scam. Alongside his aides, Shibu Hazra and Uttam Sardar, Shahjahan was accused by local women of orchestrating a systemic ‘reign of terror’ that included the forced seizure of tribal lands for fisheries and the recurring sexual assault of village women at party offices.
West Bengal today stands at a crossroads where mathematics meets national security and so you decide, whether Comte was right or right. I am done.
